Abstract
BACKGROUND: The efficacy of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography(PET/CT) in evaluating the neck status in clinically node-negative (cN0) oral squamous cell carcinoma(OSCC) patients was still unsatisfying. We tried to develop a prediction model for nodal metastasis in cN0 OSCC patients by using metabolic and pathological variables. METHODS: Consecutive cN0 OSCC patients with preoperative (18)F-FDG PET/CT, subsequent surgical resection of primary tumor and neck dissection were included. Ninety-five patients who underwent PET/CT scanning in Shanghai ninth people's hospital were identified as training cohort, and another 46 patients who imaged in Shanghai Universal Medical Imaging Diagnostic Center were selected as validation cohort. Nodal-status-related variables in the training cohort were selected by multivariable regression after using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). A nomogram was constructed with significant variables for the risk prediction of nodal metastasis. Finally, nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Nodal maximum standardized uptake value(nodal SUVmax) and pathological T stage were selected as significant variables. A prediction model incorporating the two variables was used to plot a nomogram. The area under the curve was 0.871(Standard Error [SE], 0.035; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.787-0.931) in the training cohort, and 0.809(SE, 0.069; 95% CI, 0.666-0.910) in the validation cohort, with good calibration demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model incorporates metabolic and pathological variables has good performance for predicting nodal metastasis in cN0 OSCC patients. However, further studies with large populations are needed to verify our findings.