Abstract
PURPOSE: Preoperative prediction of visceral pleural invasion (VPI) is important because it enables thoracic surgeons to choose appropriate surgical plans. This study aimed to develop and validate a multivariate logistic regression model incorporating the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)) and valuable computed tomography (CT) signs for the non-invasive prediction of VPI status in subpleural clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma patients before surgery. METHODS: A total of 140 patients with subpleural clinical stage IA peripheral lung adenocarcinoma were recruited and divided into a training set (n = 98) and a validation set (n = 42), according to the positron emission tomography/CT examination temporal sequence, with a 7:3 ratio. Next, VPI-positive and VPI-negative groups were formed based on the pathological results. In the training set, the clinical information, the SUV(max), the relationship between the tumor and the pleura, and the CT features were analyzed using univariate analysis. The variables with significant differences were included in the multivariate analysis to construct a prediction model. A nomogram based on multivariate analysis was developed, and its predictive performance was verified in the validation set. RESULTS: The size of the solid component, the consolidation-to-tumor ratio, the solid component pleural contact length, the SUVmax, the density type, the pleural indentation, the spiculation, and the vascular convergence sign demonstrated significant differences between VPI-positive (n = 40) and VPI-negative (n = 58) cases on univariate analysis in the training set. A multivariate logistic regression model incorporated the SUV(max) [odds ratio (OR): 1.753, P = 0.002], the solid component pleural contact length (OR: 1.101, P = 0.034), the pleural indentation (OR: 5.075, P = 0.041), and the vascular convergence sign (OR: 13.324, P = 0.025) as the best combination of predictors, which were all independent risk factors for VPI in the training group. The nomogram indicated promising discrimination, with an area under the curve value of 0.892 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.813-0.946] in the training set and 0.885 (95% CI, 0.748-0.962) in the validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated that its predicted probabilities were in acceptable agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis illustrated that the current nomogram would add more net benefit. CONCLUSION: The nomogram integrating the SUV(max) and the CT features could non-invasively predict VPI status before surgery in subpleural clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma patients.