Abstract
PURPOSES: To quantitatively predict the probability of cervical lymph node metastasis for papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) patients with or without thyroid capsular invasion (TCI), to guide the decision-making of management strategies for neck regions. METHODS: A total of 998 PTC patients from three medical centers were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: Patients with positive TCI (TCI group) exhibited higher risks for both CLNM and LLNM than those with negative TCI (no-TCI group). Patients receiving lateral lymph node dissection showed significantly higher incidence of relatively severe postoperative complications. For no-TCI group, factors including age less than 55 years old, male, the presence of bilateral disease and multifocality, and maximum tumor diameter (MTD)>=0.5cm were confirmed to be independent risk factors for CLNM, while the presence of bilateral disease and ipsilateral nodular goiter (iNG), and maximum positive CLN diameter (MCLND)>1.0cm independent factors for LLNM. Independent risk factors of LLNM for patients within the TCI group included MCLND>1.0cm, positive CLN number>=3, and the presence of iNG. Predictive models of CLNM and LLNM were established based on the aforementioned risk factors for patients within no-TCI and TCI groups. A meticulous and comprehensive risk stratification flow chart was established for a more accurate evaluation of central neck involvement including both CLNM and LLNM risk in PTC patients. CONCLUSIONS: A meticulous and comprehensive stratification flow chart for PTC patients for quantitatively evaluating both CLNM and LLNM was constructed.