Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To predict the risk factors of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who received radiotherapy. METHODS: From January 2015 to October 2021, 477 ESCC patients were enrolled and were assessed retrospectively. All these patients received radiotherapy for primary lesions or mediastinal metastatic lymph nodes. Clinical efficacy and adverse events (AEs) were observed. Univariate analysis identified clinical and dosimetric factors associated with the development of RP, and multivariate logistic regression analysis identified independent potential risk factors associated with the development of RP. Nomograms were constructed to predict RP based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among the 477 ESCC patients, the incidence of RP was 22.2%, and the incidence of grade 4 or higher RP was 1.5%. Univariate analysis indicated that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pulmonary infection, leucopenia, PTV volume, V5, V20, V30 and MLD affected the occurrence of RP. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that COPD (OR:1.821, 95%CI:1.111-2.985; P=0.017), pulmonary infection (OR:2.528, 95%CI:1.530-4.177; P<0.001), higher V20 (OR: 1.129, 95% CI:1.006-1.266; P=0.029) were significant independent predictors of RP in ESCC patients. COPD, pulmonary infection, V20 have been integrated for the RP nomogram. The rate of RP was significantly reduced in the V20<21.45% group. Further analysis indicated that the old age, diabetes, higher V20, and higher MLD were risk factors for grade 4 or higher RP. The area under the curve (AUC) value for V20 was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.567-0.893, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We have determined the risk factors of RP and grade 4 or higher RP in ESCC patients after radiotherapy. MLD, V20, COPD were independent factors for RP. It was necessary to take measures to reduce or avoid the occurrence of RP for patients with these risk factors at the early stage.