Abstract
Samples of wheat and soil were collected in the Lihe watershed in East China, the migration and accumulation processes of four common trace metals (Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni) in each part of the wheat plant (root, stem, leaf and grain) were analyzed, and a mechanistic model was proposed to simulate these processes based on wheat growth techniques. Model results show that Cu and Cd migrate more easily with wheat grains, while most Pb and Ni accumulate in roots. Modeling results were shown to be relatively good, with an error of 25.29% in value and 26.38% in fluctuation, and had smaller dispersion degree than actual measurement results. Monte Carlo simulation results also match quite well with actual measurement results, and modeling results are slightly smaller in the simulation of Leaf-Cu, Grain-Cu and Leaf-Ni. Trace metal pollution risk in wheat is evaluated based on this model; our results show that the northwest and northeast parts in the research area are not suitable for growing wheat. In general, this model is relatively accurate, and can evaluate the wheat pollution risk before seeding wheat, providing scientific references for the early selection of wheat safety sowing areas.