Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: More than 200 genetic variants have been associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility. However, it is unclear to what extent genetic factors influence lifetime risk of MS. Using a population-based birth-year cohort, we investigate the effect of genetics on lifetime risk of MS. METHODS: In the Project Y study, we tracked down almost all persons with MS (pwMS) from birth year 1966 in the Netherlands. As control participants, we included non-MS participants from the Project Y cohort (born 1965-1967 in the Netherlands) and non-MS participants from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort born between 1963 and 1969. Genetic variants associated with MS were determined in pwMS and control participants using genotyping or imputation methods. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on variants and weights from the largest genetic study in MS were calculated for each participant and assigned into deciles based on the PRS distribution in the control participants. We examined the lifetime risk for each decile and the association between PRS and MS disease variables, including age at onset and time to secondary progression. RESULTS: MS-PRS was calculated for 285 pwMS (mean age 53.0 ± 0.9 years, 72.3% female) and 267 control participants (mean age 51.8 ± 3.2 years, 58.1% female). Based on the lifetime risk estimation, we observed that 1:2,739 of the women with the lowest 30% genetic risk developed MS, whereas 1:92 of the women with the top 10% highest risk developed MS. For men, only 1:7,900 developed MS in the lowest 30% genetic risk group, compared with 1:293 men with the top 10% genetic risk. The PRS was not significantly associated with age at onset and time to secondary progression in both sexes. DISCUSSION: Our results show that the lifetime risk of MS is strongly influenced by genetic factors. Our findings have the potential to support diagnostic certainty in individuals with suspected MS: a high PRS could strengthen a diagnosis, but especially a PRS from the lowest tail of the PRS distribution should be considered a red flag and could prevent misdiagnosing conditions that mimic MS.