Abstract
Objective: Adolescence is characterized by psychosocial and cognitive changes that can alter the perceived risk of negative effects of alcohol, opportunities to drink, and self-control. Few studies have investigated whether these factors change in their contribution to adolescent drinking over time. This study examined associations between perceived risk, opportunities to drink, self-control, and past-year drinking and investigated whether self-control buffers the effect of lower perceived risk and frequent drinking opportunities on the probability of past-year drinking. Method: Data from a four-wave longitudinal study (2015-2020) of 2,104 North Carolina adolescents (M(age) = 12.36, SD(age) = 1.12, at Time 1) were used to assess changes in associations between self-control, perceived risk of drinking, and drinking opportunities on the frequency of past-year drinking. Hypotheses were tested using latent trajectory models. Results: At all timepoints, greater perceived risk, fewer drinking opportunities, and higher self-control were associated with drinking abstinence in the past year. Self-control buffered the impact of frequent drinking opportunities and lower perceived risk on the probability of alcohol use at Times 1-3. Conclusions: Despite expectations that adolescents' ability to navigate their environments improves as they age, associations between risk, protective factors, and past-year drinking were relatively stable over time. Nevertheless, self-control protected against frequent drinking opportunities and lower perceived risk. Strategies that support or relieve the need for self-control (e.g., situation modification) may protect against alcohol use throughout adolescence.