Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The incidence of imminent new vertebral fracture (NVF) is notably high after vertebral augmentation (VA), but accurately assessing the imminent risk of NVF remains a great challenge. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the MRI-based vertebral bone quality (VBQ) score can predict the risk of imminent NVF after VA within a 2-year period. METHODS: A total of 135 patients age 50 years and older who suffered from painful osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture and treated with VA were enrolled in this retrospective study. Each patient's VBQ scores were calculated from T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and short tau inversion recovery sequences of preoperative lumbar MRI. The clinical factors and VBQ score were integrated to create a predictive model by using the logistic regression algorithm and visualize by nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: The mean VBQ-T1WI and VBQ-T2WI scores of the NVF group were 4.61 ± 0.55 and 0.89 ± 0.14, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the without NVF group (3.99 ± 0.54 and 0.79 ± 0.12, respectively, P < .001), as well as the VBQ-combined score (0.75 ± 1.30 vs -0.80 ± 1.26, P < .001), which is the combination of VBQ-T1WI and VBQ-T2WI scores. On multivariate analysis, the predictors of imminent NVF included age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.064, 95% CI = 1.009-1.122, P = .022), previous vertebral fracture (OR = 2.089, 95% CI = 0.888-4.915, P = .091), and VBQ-combined score (OR = 2.239, 95% CI = 1.529-3.279, P < .001). The nomogram achieved superior performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.838 (95% CI: 0.773-0.904) in predicting the imminent NVF compared to the clinical factors or VBQ-combined score alone. CONCLUSION: The VBQ score obtained from lumbar MRI can be used to assess the VBQ and predict the imminent NVF after VA in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.