Abstract
RNA and protein expressed from the same gene can have diverse isoforms due to various post-transcriptional and post-translational modifications. For the vast majority of alternative isoforms, It is unknown whether they are adaptive or simply biological noise. As we cannot experimentally probe the function of each isoform, we can ask whether the distribution of isoforms across genes and across species is consistent with expectations from different evolutionary processes. However, there is currently no theoretical framework that can generate such predictions. To address this, we developed a mathematical model where isoform abundances are determined collectively by cis-acting loci, trans-acting factors, gene expression levels, and isoform decay rates to predict isoform abundance distributions across species and genes in the face of mutation, genetic drift, and selection. We found that factors beyond selection, such as effective population size and the number of cis-acting loci, significantly influence evolutionary outcomes. Notably, suboptimal phenotypes are more likely to evolve when the population is small and/or when the number of cis-loci is large. We also explored scenarios where modification processes have both beneficial and detrimental effects, revealing a non-monotonic relationship between effective population size and optimization, demonstrating how opposing selection pressures on cis- and trans-acting loci can constrain the optimization of gene product diversity. As a demonstration of the power of our theory, we compared the expected distribution of A-to-I RNA editing levels in coleoids and found this to be largely consistent with non-adaptive explanations.