Abstract
The damming materials will be deteriorated during the long-term service of concrete arch dam by weathering, seepage dissolution, freeze-thaw and other factors which will put dams at potential risk. However, there are few researches on the reliability assessment of arch dams considering the effect of material deterioration. In this paper, a prediction model of concrete mechanical properties under freeze-thaw cycles is established using regression analysis. Considering various uncertain factors, a time-varying structural reliability analysis model is established using finite element equivalent stress method and an optimized response surface method with improved sampling strategy and convergence criterion. A case study is later carried out. The results show that, at the early stage of freeze-thaw, the structural failure probability will increase steadily in a small range. However, as the tensile strength of concrete continues to decrease under long-time freeze-thaw action, the reliability of the arch dam structure will suddenly fall off a cliff. The proposed deterioration model and reliability analysis probability model are reasonable and practical and could be serve as a technical support for similar engineering projects.