Abstract
Introduction Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced pneumonitis results in a prothrombotic and hypercoagulable state. Prognostic indicators are crucial for identifying patients at risk of complications. D-dimer, a degradation product of cross-linked fibrin, is a specific marker for thrombosis. Elevated D-dimer levels have been strongly correlated with poor prognosis and increased severity of illness in COVID-19 patients. Given D-dimer's eight-hour half-life, periodic measurement is necessary to track disease progression. This study aimed to analyze and derive threshold and peak D-dimer values to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients, comparing those treated in isolation wards to those requiring intensive care. Methods This two-year retrospective observational study included patients above 18 years with confirmed COVID-19. Patients were categorized into those treated in isolation wards and those admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Based on the outcome, they were further divided into survivors and non-survivors. Demographic and outcome-related data were collected from the hospital's laboratory information system. Serial D-dimer measurements were taken at eight time points. Statistical analysis was performed using the Mann-Whitney test for laboratory values and the chi-square test for demographic data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to derive critical D-dimer values. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for initial and peak D-dimer values. Results Of 2.149 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 811 (38%) presented with elevated D-dimer levels. ICU admission was required for 239 patients, either due to direct admission or worsening conditions. An initial D-dimer value of ≥0.93 mg/L FEU indicated the need for ICU admission, while a peak D-dimer value of 5.65 mg/L FEU predicted mortality. The AUC for the initial D-dimer was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.55-0.64), indicating moderate discriminatory power. The AUC for the peak D-dimer was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.54-0.62), suggesting lower predictive accuracy for peak values. Sensitivity was high for both initial (0.925) and peak (0.960) D-dimer values, although specificity was lower, especially for the peak D-dimer (0.486), resulting in a higher rate of false positives. Among the ICU patients, the age range was 27-97 years, with a mean of 53.5 years. Males were more affected than females (71% vs. 29%), with a male-to-female ratio of 1.4:1. Of the ICU patients, 64.8% recovered, while 35.2% succumbed to the disease. Younger patients (mean age: 50.5 ± 12 years) recovered faster than older patients (mean age: 64 ± 16 years), with a significant difference in recovery time (p < 0.001). Gender did not significantly impact outcomes (p = 0.743). Survivors spent less time in the ICU (3-7 days) compared to non-survivors (4-14 days) (p = 0.041). Conclusion Serial D-dimer monitoring is essential for predicting outcomes and guiding treatment in COVID-19 patients. Initial and peak D-dimer values can help identify patients requiring intensive care and those at risk of mortality, allowing for timely interventions. D-dimer levels should be integrated into routine clinical assessments for managing COVID-19 patients.