Abstract
Climate change induced spatiotemporal variation in global water availability modifies the proposed design criteria of water infrastructure structures like dams and reservoirs. Although reservoir operation is treated as a potential adaptation option, obsolescence of existing operation rules in the climate change scenarios could cause devastating situation through faulty water management practices. Presently onboard simulation-optimization based reservoir operation schemes fail to capture the uncertainty involved in the climate change scenario. Hence, there is a need to identify the limiting application scenario of the existing reservoir operation rule, and subsequently, revise the operation framework to address the future supply-demand uncertainty adequately. This research develops an integrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (hydrologic), HEC-ResSim (hydraulic), and genetic algorithm (GA) (optimization) based adaptive reservoir operation framework, which is competent enough in accounting the future supply-demand uncertainty. Incorporation of the newly proposed environmental flow assessment approach in the reservoir operation would assist the decision makers in guiding the reservoir release for maintaining the water quality and sustenance of the downstream aquatic species. Certainly, corresponding to the existing operation rules under both the baseline and future climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the developed SWAT-HEC-ResSim-GA based reservoir operation scheme could improve the performance of the Kangsabati reservoir with the time and volume reliability estimates of 0.631 and 0.736, respectively. Conclusively, the developed approach in this study could be the best feasible alternative for hydrologic characterization in complex reservoir catchment-command regions with the option for enhanced reservoir planning in global catchment-command regions.