Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To better understand the pathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis (OA) through identification of serum diagnostics. DESIGN: We conducted multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry analysis of 107 peptides in baseline sera of two cohorts: the Foundation for National Institutes of Health (NIH) (n = 596 Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 1-3 knee OA participants); and the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project (n = 127 multi-joint controls free of radiographic OA of the hands, hips, knees (bilateral KL=0), and spine). Data were split into (70%) training and (30%) testing sets. Diagnostic peptide and clinical data predictors were selected by random forest (RF); selection was based on association (p < 0.05) with OA status in multivariable logistic regression models. Model performance was based on area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves. RESULTS: RF selected 23 peptides (19 proteins) and body mass index (BMI) as diagnostic of OA. BMI weakly diagnosed OA (ROC-AUC 0.57, PR-AUC 0.812) and only symptomatic OA cases. ACTG was the strongest univariable predictor (ROC-AUC 0.705, PR-AUC 0.897). The final model (8 serum peptides) was highly diagnostic (ROC-AUC 0.833, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.751, 0.905; PR-AUC 0.929, 95% CI 0.876, 0.973) in the testing set and equally diagnostic of non-symptomatic and symptomatic cases (AUCs 0.830-0.835), and not significantly improved with addition of BMI. The STRING database predicted multiple high confidence interactions of the 19 diagnostic OA proteins. CONCLUSIONS: No more than 8 serum protein biomarkers were required to discriminate knee OA from non-OA. These biomarkers lend strong support to the involvement and cross-talk of complement and coagulation pathways in the development of OA.