Abstract
BACKGROUND: Previous studies of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) focused on CEA measured at a single time point, ignoring serial CEA measurements. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included 2959 patients underwent surgery for stage I-III NSCLC. CEA trajectory patterns and long-term cumulative CEA burden were evaluated using the latent class growth mixture model. RESULTS: Four CEA trajectory groups were identified, named as low-stable, decreasing, early-rising and later-rising. Compared with the low-stable group, the adjusted hazard ratios associated with death were 1.27, 4.50, and 3.68 for the other groups. Cumulative CEA burden were positively associated with the risk of death in patients not belonging to the low-stable group. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates decreased from 62.3% to 33.0% for the first and fourth quantile groups of cumulative CEA burden. Jointly, patients with decreasing CEA trajectory could be further divided into the decreasing & low and decreasing & high group, with 5-year OS rates to be 77.9% and 47.1%. Patients with rising CEA trajectory and high cumulative CEA were found to be more likely to develop bone metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal trajectory patterns and long-term cumulative burden of CEA were independent prognostic factors of NSCLC. We recommend CEA in postoperative surveillance of NSCLC.