Abstract
Isolation of the Caribbean Sea from the tropical Eastern Pacific by uplift of the Isthmus of Panama in the late Pliocene was associated with major, taxonomically variable, shifts in Caribbean biotic composition, and extinction, but inferred causes of these biological changes have remained elusive. We addressed this through falsifiable hypotheses about how independently determined historical changes in oceanographic conditions may have been responsible. The most striking environmental change was a sharp decline in upwelling intensity as measured from decreases in intra-annual fluctuations in temperature and consequently in planktonic productivity. We then hypothesized three general categories of biological response based upon observed differences in natural history between the oceans today. These include changes in feeding ecology, life histories, and habitats. As expected, suspension feeders and predators became rarer as upwelling declined. However, predicted increases in benthic productivity by reef corals, and benthic algae were drawn out over more than 1 Myr as seagrass and coral reef habitats proliferated; a shift that was itself driven by declining upwelling. Similar time lags occurred for predicted shifts in reproductive life history characteristics of bivalves, gastropods, and bryozoans. Examination of the spatial variability of biotic change helps to understand the time lags. Many older species characteristic of times before environmental conditions had changed tended to hang on in progressively smaller proportions of locations until they became extinct as expected from metapopulation theory and the concept of extinction debt. Faunal turnover may not occur until a million or more years after the environmental changes ultimately responsible.