Abstract
BACKGROUND: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a highly malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. This study aimed to investigate whether Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocytes, and Platelets (HALP) score and Tumor Burden Score (TBS) serves as independent influencing factors following radical resection in patients with ICC. Furthermore, we sought to evaluate the predictive capacity of the combined HALP and TBS grade, referred to as HTS grade, and to develop a prognostic prediction model. METHODS: Clinical data for ICC patients who underwent radical resection were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were first used to find influencing factors of prognosis for ICC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were then used to find the optimal cut-off values for HALP score and TBS and to compare the predictive ability of HALP, TBS, and HTS grade using the area under these curves (AUC). Nomogram prediction models were constructed and validated based on the results of the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 423 patients, 234 (55.3%) were male and 202 (47.8) were aged ≥ 60 years. The cut-off value of HALP was found to be 37.1 and for TBS to be 6.3. Our univariate results showed that HALP, TBS, and HTS grade were prognostic factors of ICC patients (all P < 0.05), and ROC results showed that HTS had the best predictive value. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the prognosis of ICC patients was worse with increasing HTS grade. Additionally, multivariate regression analysis showed that HTS grade, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), tumor differentiation, and vascular invasion were independent influencing factors for Overall survival (OS) and that HTS grade, CA19-9, CEA, vascular invasion and lymph node invasion were independent influencing factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) (all P < 0.05). In the first, second, and third years of the training group, the AUCs for OS were 0.867, 0.902, and 0.881, and the AUCs for RFS were 0.849, 0.841, and 0.899, respectively. In the first, second, and third years of the validation group, the AUCs for OS were 0.727, 0.771, and 0.763, and the AUCs for RFS were 0.733, 0.746, and 0.801, respectively. Through the examination of calibration curves and using decision curve analysis (DCA), nomograms based on HTS grade showed excellent predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomograms based on HTS grade had excellent predictive effects and may thus be able to help clinicians provide individualized clinical decision for ICC patients.