Abstract
Despite well-established evidence supporting vaccination efficacy in reducing morbidity and mortality among infants and children, there is a global challenge with an increasing number of childhood vaccination refusals. This issue has intensified, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study aims to forecast mandatory childhood vaccination refusal trends in Kazakhstan until 2030, assessing the impact of mass COVID-19 vaccination on these rates. Utilizing annual official statistical data from 2013 to 2022 provided by the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan, the study reveals a significant surge in refusals during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, reaching record levels of 42,282 cases in 2021 and 44,180 cases in 2022. Notably, refusal rates sharply rose in specific regions, like Aktobe (13.9 times increase) and Atyrau (4.29 times increase), emphasizing the need for increased public healthcare attention in these areas. However, despite a decade of data, our forecasting analysis indicates a lack of volatility in childhood vaccine refusal trends for all vaccine types up to 2030, highlighting the statistical significance of the obtained results. The increasing trend in vaccine refusals underscores the necessity to enhance crisis response and support health initiatives, particularly in regions where a substantial rise in refusals has been observed in recent years.