Abstract
The association between circulating saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is reported in Western populations with inconsistent results, while evidence from Asian populations is scarce. We aimed to examine the associations between erythrocyte SFAs and incident T2D in a Chinese population. Between 2008 and 2013, a total of 2683 participants, aged 40⁻75 years, free of diabetes were included in the present analyses. Incident T2D cases were ascertained during follow-up visits. Gas chromatography was used to measure erythrocyte fatty acids at baseline. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During 13,508 person years of follow-up, 216 T2D cases were identified. Compared with the first quartile, multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of the fourth quartile were 1.20 (0.82⁻1.76; p = 0.242) for myristic acid (14-carbon tail, zero double bonds; 14:0), 0.69 (0.48⁻0.99; p = 0.080) for palmitic acid (16:0), 1.49 (1.02⁻2.19; p = 0.047) for stearic acid (18:0), 1.46 (1.00⁻2.12; p = 0.035) for arachidic acid (20:0), 1.48 (0.99⁻2.22; p = 0.061) for behenic acid (22:0), and 1.08 (0.74⁻1.56; p = 0.913) for lignoceric acid (24:0). Our findings indicate that individual erythrocyte SFAs are associated with T2D in different directions, with 18:0 and 20:0 SFAs positively associated with the risk, whereas no convincing inverse association for 16:0 SFAs.