Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the use of a mathematical model of glucose homeostasis, fit to continuous glucose monitor data, as a metric of dysfunctional glycemic control. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred eighty four participants recruited from 2 studies between October 2020 and June 2022 were equipped with a continuous glucose monitor, and interstitial glucose data were automatically collected for 2 weeks. The participants were assessed by a physician and diagnosed as being diabetic, prediabetic, or healthy according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines. A mathematical model of glucose homeostasis was fitted to the glucose data, and model parameter values were obtained. The participants were classified into the following 2 groups on the basis of their glucose homeostasis parameters: effective and impaired. Finally, glycemic variability metrics were compared with glucose homeostasis classification. RESULTS: The homeostasis classification resulted in a specificity, sensitivity of individuals with prediabetes, and sensitivity of individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) of 0.78, 0.86, and 1.00, respectively, for women and 0.71, 0.86, and 1.00, respectively, for men. This sensitivity was similar to that of glycated hemoglobin A1c measurement (a sensitivity of 0.89 for women and 0.90 for men for prediabetes and a sensitivity of 1.00 for T2D) and superior to that of the oral glucose tolerance test (a sensitivity of 0.18 for women and 0.24 for men for prediabetes and a sensitivity of 0.75 for women and 0.86 for men for T2D). Overall, the individuals classified as impaired had increased glucose variability metrics than the individuals classified as effective (P<.05). CONCLUSION: The classification of glucose homeostasis on the basis of mathematical modeling of continuous measurements has promising applications as a new metric of dysfunctional glycemic control. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04529239; clinical trial registry identifier: CTRI/2021/08/035957.