Abstract
BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is highly heterogenous and may be complicated by stricturing behavior. Personalized prediction of stricturing will inform management. We aimed to create a stricturing risk stratification model using genomic/clinical data. METHODS: Exome sequencing was performed on CD patients, and phenotype data retrieved. Biallelic variants in NOD2 were identified. NOD2 was converted into a per-patient deleteriousness metric ("GenePy"). Using training data, patients were stratified into risk groups for fibrotic stricturing using NOD2. Findings were validated in a testing data set. Models were modified to include disease location at diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards assessed performance. RESULTS: Six hundred forty-five patients were included (373 children and 272 adults); 48 patients fulfilled criteria for monogenic NOD2-related disease (7.4%), 24 of whom had strictures. NOD2 GenePy scores stratified patients in training data into 2 risk groups. Within testing data, 30 of 161 patients (18.6%) were classified as high-risk based on the NOD2 biomarker, with stricturing in 17 of 30 (56.7%). In the low-risk group, 28 of 131 (21.4%) had stricturing behavior. Cox proportional hazards using the NOD2 risk groups demonstrated a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.092 (P = 2.4 × 10-5), between risk groups. Limiting analysis to patients diagnosed aged < 18-years improved performance (HR-3.164, P = 1 × 10-6). Models were modified to include disease location, such as terminal ileal (TI) disease or not. Inclusion of NOD2 risk groups added significant additional utility to prediction models. High-risk group pediatric patients presenting with TI disease had a HR of 4.89 (P = 2.3 × 10-5) compared with the low-risk group patients without TI disease. CONCLUSIONS: A NOD2 genomic biomarker predicts stricturing risk, with prognostic power improved in pediatric-onset CD. Implementation into a clinical setting can help personalize management.