Abstract
BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance generates a huge health and economic burden and has the potential to become the leading cause of death globally, but its underlying drivers are yet to be fully described. The association between a microbe's exposure to antimicrobials and subsequent development of, or selection for, resistance is well documented, as are the exacerbating microbial and human factors. However, the nature and extent of this risk, and how it varies by antimicrobial class and duration of treatment, is poorly defined. The goal of our systematic review and network meta-analysis is to determine the relationship between the duration of antimicrobial exposure and selection for resistance. We will use macrolides as the antimicrobial class of interest and Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage as an indicator organism. Our secondary outcomes include duration of symptoms, risk of treatment failure and recurrence, and descriptions of resistance mechanisms. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review, selecting studies if they are published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which report the relationship between taking a macrolide for any indication and incidence of resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in patients of any age group. We will use a predefined search strategy to identify studies meeting these eligibility criteria in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and the Cochrane Central Register of RCTs. Two authors will independently screen titles and abstracts, review the full texts and undertake data extraction. We will use the Cochrane Collaboration's tool to assess the quality of included RCTs. If feasible, we will perform pair-wise meta-analysis modelling to determine the relationship between the duration of macrolide treatment and development of macrolide resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae. If the identified studies meet the assumptions for a network meta-analysis (NMA), we will additionally model this relationship using indirect comparisons. Our protocol utilises reporting guidance by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and the extensions for protocols (PRISMA-P) and network meta-analyses (PRISMA for NMA). Our review will also report to these standards. DISCUSSION: Establishing the relationship between the duration of antimicrobial exposure and development of, or selection for, resistance will inform the design of antimicrobial prescriptions, treatment guidelines and the behaviour of both physicians and patients. This work will therefore be a strong contribution towards the full realisation of current antimicrobial resistance stewardship strategies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018089275.