Abstract
Guidelines suggest that patients who receive implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention should be expected to live more than one year after placement. However, tools for validating this prognosis are not sufficiently predictive. We sought to identify definitive predictors of one-year survival after ICD placement. By reviewing medical records and the Social Security Death Index, we analyzed baseline characteristics and survival outcomes of 3,164 patients who underwent ICD placement at our institution from January 2006 through March 2014. Survival outcome could be confirmed for 2,346 patients (74%). Of these, 184 (7.8%) died within one year of ICD placement. We noted significant differences in numerous variables between those who lived and died. However, multivariable analysis revealed only 5 independent predictors of earlier death: worse New York Heart Association functional class (hazard ratio [HR]=1.87 per class [95% CI, 1.22-2.87]; P <0.01); lower serum sodium level (HR=0.93 per 1 mEq/L increase [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; P=0.04); atrial fibrillation (HR=1.81 [95% CI, 1.03-3.21]; P=0.04); chronic lung disease (HR=2.05 [95% CI, 1.20-3.51]; P <0.01), and amiodarone use (HR=10.1 [95% CI, 4.51-22.5]; P <0.01). Using receiver operating characteristic curves, we developed a model with an area under the curve of 0.718 that predicted death at one year after ICD implantation. Despite significant univariate differences between the ICD recipients who did and did not live beyond one year, we found only moderate predictors of survival. Better tools are needed to predict outcomes when considering ICD placement for primary prevention.