Abstract
COVID-19 is associated with heterogeneous outcome. Early identification of a severe progression of the disease is essential to properly manage the patients and improve their outcome. Biomarkers reflecting an increased inflammatory response, as well as individual features including advanced age, male gender, and pre-existing comorbidities, are risk factors of severe COVID-19. Yet, these features show limited accuracy for outcome prediction. The aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of whole blood transcriptome at an early stage of the disease. Blood transcriptome of patients with mild pneumonia was profiled. Patients with subsequent severe COVID-19 were compared to those with favourable outcome, and a molecular predictor based on gene expression was built. Unsupervised classification discriminated patients who would later develop a COVID-19-related severe pneumonia. The corresponding gene expression signature reflected the immune response to the viral infection dominated by a prominent type I interferon, with IFI27 among the most over-expressed genes. A 48-genes transcriptome signature predicting the risk of severe COVID-19 was built on a training cohort, then validated on an external independent cohort, showing an accuracy of 81% for predicting severe outcome. These results identify an early transcriptome signature of severe COVID-19 pneumonia, with a possible relevance to improve COVID-19 patient management.