Abstract
Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is a typical example of an intractable skin disease with no clear cause and significantly affects daily life of patients. Because CSU is a human-specific disease and lacks proper animal model, there are many questions regarding its pathophysiological dynamics. On the other hand, most clinical symptoms of urticaria are notable as dynamic appearance of skin eruptions called wheals. In this study, we explored dynamics of wheal by dividing it into three phases using a mathematical model: onset, development, and disappearance. Our results suggest that CSU onset is critically associated with endovascular dynamics triggered by basophils positive feedback. In contrast, the development phase is regulated by mast cell dynamics via vascular gap formation. We also suggest a disappearance mechanism of skin eruptions in CSU through an extension of the mathematical model using qualitative and quantitative comparisons of wheal expansion data of real patients with urticaria. Our results suggest that the wheal dynamics of the three phases and CSU development are hierarchically related to endovascular and extravascular pathophysiological networks.