Abstract
Recent studies showed that the likelihood of drug approval can be predicted with clinical data and structure information of drug using computational approaches. Predicting the likelihood of drug approval can be innovative and of high impact. However, models that leverage clinical data are applicable only in clinical stages, which is not very practical. Prioritizing drug candidates and early-stage decision-making in the de novo drug development process is crucial in pharmaceutical research to optimize resource allocation. For early-stage decision-making, we need a computational model that uses only chemical structures. This seemingly impossible task may utilize the predictive power with multi-modal features including clinical data. In this work, we introduce ChemAP (Chemical structure-based drug Approval Predictor), a novel deep learning scheme for drug approval prediction in the early-stage drug discovery phase. ChemAP aims to enhance the possibility of early-stage decision-making by enriching semantic knowledge to fill in the gap between multi-modal and single-modal chemical spaces through knowledge distillation techniques. This approach facilitates the effective construction of chemical space solely from chemical structure data, guided by multi-modal knowledge related to efficacy, such as clinical trials and patents of drugs. In this study, ChemAP achieved state-of-the-art performance, outperforming both traditional machine learning and deep learning models in drug approval prediction, with AUROC and AUPRC scores of 0.782 and 0.842 respectively on the drug approval benchmark dataset. Additionally, we demonstrated its generalizability by outperforming baseline models on a recent external dataset, which included drugs from the 2023 FDA-approved list and the 2024 clinical trial failure drug list, achieving AUROC and AUPRC scores of 0.694 and 0.851. These results demonstrate that ChemAP is an effective method in predicting drug approval only with chemical structure information of drug so that decision-making can be done at the early stages of drug development process. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind to show that prediction of drug approval is possible only with structure information of drug by defining the chemical space of approved and unapproved drugs using deep learning technology.