Abstract
The relationship between 24-h urinary phosphorus excretion (24 h UPE) and cardiovascular disease in patients with pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied, despite the fact that the relationship between serum phosphorus level and the risk of a cardiovascular event is well established. A total of 1701 patients with pre-dialysis CKD were finally included for the analyses and were divided into tertiles by 24 h UPE (first tertile (T1, 349.557 (mean) ± 88.413 (standard deviation)), second tertile (T2, 557.530 ± 50.738), and third tertile (T3, 851.695 ± 171.593). The study outcome was a six-point major adverse cardiac event (MACE). The median follow-up duration was 7.992 years. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis visualized that the cumulative incidences of a six-point MACE (p = 0.029) significantly differed from 24 h UPE levels, as the incidence rate of the study outcomes was highest in T1 and lowest in T3. Cox proportional hazard models unveiled that, compared to T1, the risk of a six-point MACE was significantly decreased in T3 (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.376, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.207 to 0.683). The restricted cubic spline curve analysis visualized an inverted S-shaped association between 24 h UPE level and the risk of a six-point MACE, indicating a significantly increased risk of a six-point MACE in patients with a low 24 h UPE level. In conclusion, low 24 h UPE is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with CKD. Our finding emphasizes that low 24 h UPE should not be a reliable marker for dietary restriction of phosphorus that essentially leads to better outcomes in patients with CKD.