Abstract
Few articles have investigated the impact of long-term meat intake trends and their changes during follow-up on the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to explore the long-term trajectories of meat intake and determine its association with T2D risk in Chinese adults. This study used seven rounds of data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2018), and 4464 adults aged 18 years or older were analyzed. The group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify meat intake trajectories over 21 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard and restricted cubic spline models were used to analyze the association and dose-response relationship between meat intake and T2D. Four trajectory groups were identified: "low-increase intake group" (Group 1), "moderate-increase intake group" (Group 2), "medium-stable intake group" (Group 3), and "high intake group" (Group 4). Compared with Group 2, Group 4 was associated with a higher risk of developing T2D (hazard ratio 2.37 [95% CI 1.41-3.98]). After adjusting for demographic characteristics, lifestyle, total energy intake, waist circumference, and systolic blood pressure, and using the third quintile as a reference, the risk of T2D was increased by 46% in the lowest quintile with meat intake (hazard ratio 1.46 [95% CI 1.07-2.01]) and by 41% in the highest quintile with meat intake (HR 1.41 [95% CI 1.03-1.94]). A U-shape was observed between meat intake and T2D risk (p for nonlinear < 0.001). When the intake was lower than 75 g/day, the risk of T2D was negatively correlated with meat intake, while the risk of T2D was positively correlated with meat intake when the intake was higher than 165 g/day. We identified four trajectory groups of meat intake from 1997 to 2018, which were associated with different risks of developing T2D. A U-shaped association was observed between meat intake and T2D in Chinese adults.