Abstract
Metabolic disease is a significant risk factor for severe COVID-19 infection, but the contributing pathways are not yet fully elucidated. Using data from two randomized controlled trials across 13 U.S. academic centers, our goal was to characterize metabolic features that predict severe COVID-19 and define a novel baseline metabolomic signature. Individuals (n = 133) were dichotomized as having mild or moderate/severe COVID-19 disease based on the WHO ordinal scale. Blood samples were analyzed using the Biocrates platform, providing 630 targeted metabolites for analysis. Resampling techniques and machine learning models were used to determine metabolomic features associated with severe disease. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) was used for functional enrichment analysis. To aid in clinical decision making, we created baseline metabolomics signatures of low-correlated molecules. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit to associate these signatures with severe disease on training data. A three-metabolite signature, lysophosphatidylcholine a C17:0, dihydroceramide (d18:0/24:1), and triacylglyceride (20:4_36:4), resulted in the best discrimination performance with an average test AUROC of 0.978 and F1 score of 0.942. Pathways related to amino acids were significantly enriched from the IPA analyses, and the mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 5 (MAP2K5) was differentially activated between groups. In conclusion, metabolites related to lipid metabolism efficiently discriminated between mild vs. moderate/severe disease. SDMA and GABA demonstrated the potential to discriminate between these two groups as well. The mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 5 (MAP2K5) regulator is differentially activated between groups, suggesting further investigation as a potential therapeutic pathway.