Abstract
BACKGROUND: To determine whether variability of serum uric acid (UA) is associated with risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a healthy population. METHODS: Retrospective, longitudinal cohort study was conducted at a health examination center in China. The study enrolled subjects who had a minimum of three visits between 2011 and 2018. We assessed UA change and visit-to-visit UA variability including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline was defined by annual eGFR change < -4 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year. We conducted a multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Ten thousand seven hundred and thirty-eight participants were included. During 4.43 ± 1.31 years follow-up, there were 535 cases with rapid eGFR decline and 240 cases developed CKD. Compared to the non-rapid eGFR decline group and non-CKD group, the UA annual changes and variability were higher in the rapid eGFR decline group and CKD group. The highest quartile of UA annual changes and variability showed a higher incident rate of rapid eGFR decline and that of CKD. After adjusting for covariates, OR for eGFR rapid decline in UA variability were 1.69 [1.53, 1.86] for annual changes of UA, 1.17 [1.08, 1.27] for SD of UA, 1.16 [1.06, 1.25] for CV of UA, 1.16 [1.07, 1.25] for VIM of UA, and 1.10 [1.02, 1.19] for ARV of UA. Consistent results were observed when CKD is used as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Higher variability of serum UA was independently associated with the risk of kidney impairment.