Abstract
BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the potential indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs on the adult pneumonia burden in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of childhood PCV13 immunisation on adult all-cause pneumonia following a phased program introduction from 2016. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in pneumonia hospitalisation incidence at four district hospitals in Mongolia. Adults (≥18 years) that met the clinical case definition for all-cause pneumonia were enrolled. A negative binomial mixed-effects model was used to assess the impact of PCV13 introduction on monthly counts of pneumonia admissions from January 2015-February 2022. We also performed a restricted analysis excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. All models were stratified by age and assessed separately. Additional analyses assessed the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: The average annual incidence of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation was highest in adults 65+ years (62.81 per 10,000 population) and declined with decreasing age. After adjusting for the COVID-19 pandemic period, we found that rates of pneumonia hospitalisation remained largely unchanged over time. We did not observe a reduction in pneumonia hospitalisation in any age group. Results from restricted and sensitivity analyses were comparable to the primary results, finding limited evidence of a reduced pneumonia burden. INTERPRETATION: We did not find evidence of indirect protection against all-cause pneumonia in adults following childhood PCV13 introduction. Direct pneumococcal vaccination and other interventions should be considered to reduce burden of pneumonia among older adults. FUNDING: Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).