Abstract
BACKGROUND: Among patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), there is no established method to distinguish between patients with residual disease that may eventually progress and those who have achieved cured. We thus aimed to assess the prognostic value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based lymph node regression grade (LRG) in the risk stratification of patients with NPC following radiotherapy (RT). METHODS: This study retrospectively enrolled 387 patients newly diagnosed with NPC between January 2010 and January 2013. A four-category MRI-LRG system based on the areal analysis of RT-induced fibrosis and residual tumor was established. Univariate analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons were conducted via the log-rank test. Multivariate analyses were conducted using Cox regression models to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and adjusted P values. Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. RESULTS: The sum of MRI-LRG scores (LRG-sum) was an independent prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS) (HR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.28-4.90; P<0.001). LRG-sum ≤9 and >9 showed a poorer 5-year PFS rate than did LRG-sum ≤2 (66.1%, 42.9%, and 77.6%, respectively; P<0.001). A survival clustering analysis-based decision tree model showed more complex interactions among LRG-sum and pretreatment and post-RT Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA, yielding four patient clusters with differentiated disease progression risks (5-year PFS rates of 89.5%, 76.4%, 57.6%, and 27.8%, respectively), which showed better risk stratification than did post-RT EBV DNA alone (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The MRI-LRG system adds prognostic information and is a potentially reliable, noninvasive means to stratify treatment modalities for patients with NPC.