Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early life factors, including parental sociodemographic characteristics, pregnancy exposures, and physical and neurodevelopmental features measured in infancy are associated with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of a classifier model for diagnosing FASD in preschool-aged children from pregnancy and infancy-related characteristics. METHODS: We analyzed a prospective pregnancy cohort in Western Ukraine enrolled between 2008 and 2014. Maternal and paternal sociodemographic factors, maternal prenatal alcohol use and smoking behaviors, reproductive characteristics, birth outcomes, infant alcohol-related dysmorphic and physical features, and infant neurodevelopmental outcomes were used to predict FASD. Data were split into separate training (80%: n = 245) and test (20%: n = 58; 11 FASD, 47 no FASD) datasets. Training data were balanced using data augmentation through a synthetic minority oversampling technique. Four classifier models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost], logistic regression [full model] and backward stepwise logistic regression) were evaluated for accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in the hold-out sample. RESULTS: Of 306 children evaluated for FASD, 61 had a diagnosis. Random forest models had the highest sensitivity (0.54), with accuracy of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.94) in hold-out data. Boosted gradient models performed similarly, however, sensitivity was less than 50%. The full logistic regression model performed poorly (sensitivity = 0.18 and accuracy = 0.65), while stepwise logistic regression performed similarly to the boosted gradient model but with lower specificity. In a hold-out sample, the best performing algorithm correctly classified six of 11 children with FASD, and 44 of 47 children without FASD. CONCLUSIONS: As early identification and treatment optimize outcomes of children with FASD, classifier models from early life characteristics show promise in predicting FASD. Models may be improved through the inclusion of physiologic markers of prenatal alcohol exposure and should be tested in different samples.