Abstract
BACKGROUND: The utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the biomedical field has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Studying how past AI technologies have found their way into medicine over time can help to predict which current (and future) AI technologies have the potential to be utilized in medicine in the coming years, thereby providing a helpful reference for future research directions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to predict the future trend of AI technologies used in different biomedical domains based on past trends of related technologies and biomedical domains. METHODS: We collected a large corpus of articles from the PubMed database pertaining to the intersection of AI and biomedicine. Initially, we attempted to use regression on the extracted keywords alone; however, we found that this approach did not provide sufficient information. Therefore, we propose a method called "background-enhanced prediction" to expand the knowledge utilized by the regression algorithm by incorporating both the keywords and their surrounding context. This method of data construction resulted in improved performance across the six regression models evaluated. Our findings were confirmed through experiments on recurrent prediction and forecasting. RESULTS: In our analysis using background information for prediction, we found that a window size of 3 yielded the best results, outperforming the use of keywords alone. Furthermore, utilizing data only prior to 2017, our regression projections for the period of 2017-2021 exhibited a high coefficient of determination (R(2)), which reached up to 0.78, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method in predicting long-term trends. Based on the prediction, studies related to proteins and tumors will be pushed out of the top 20 and become replaced by early diagnostics, tomography, and other detection technologies. These are certain areas that are well-suited to incorporate AI technology. Deep learning, machine learning, and neural networks continue to be the dominant AI technologies in biomedical applications. Generative adversarial networks represent an emerging technology with a strong growth trend. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we explored AI trends in the biomedical field and developed a predictive model to forecast future trends. Our findings were confirmed through experiments on current trends.