Abstract
BACKGROUND: Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) has a strong invasive ability and a high degree of malignancy, so accurate prognosis prediction is crucial for making the most favorable treatment decision.Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of prognostic indicators specific to SCLC. Reticulocyte levels in blood parameters have been linked to the prognosis of various malignancies. Given SCLC's aggressive characteristics, identifying reliable prognostic markers, such as reticulocyte counts, becomes pivotal in enhancing prognostic accuracy and guiding effective therapeutic strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive power of the immature reticulocyte fraction (IRF) to mature reticulocyte fraction (MRF) ratio (IMR) for survival outcomes in patients with SCLC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 192 patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The median values of various prognostic indicators, such as IMR, IRF, MRF, reticulocyte count (RET), SII (systemic immune-inflammatory index), were utilized as cutoff points, categorizing patients into high and low groups. The Kaplan-Meier method, univariate, multivariate analyses Cox regression, and C-index were used to analyze the prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In our cohort, 138 (71.9 %) were male, 119 (62 %) were smokers, and 82 (57.3 %) were older than 60 years old. The median survival time was 18.15 months.Higher mortality was observed in the high IMR and high IRF groups, while the high MRF group exhibited lower mortality. At the same time, mortality was lower in the high MRF group. Univariate analysis showed that smoking history (P = 0.006), tumor stage (P = 0.002), chemotherapy cycle (P = 0.014), IMR (P = 0.01), and many other factors significantly affected the prognosis of SCLC. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated IMR was an independent adverse predictor of OS (P = 0.039, HR = 0.330). Spearman test confirmed that the prognostic indicators IRF, IMR, and SII were positively correlated with the overall survival rate of patients with SCLC. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the OS rate of patients with high IMR was significantly worse (P = 0.0096). In addition, we found that IMR was superior to IRF in distinguishing patients with different outcomes in the low and high groups (P < 0.05). Our novel integration index, combining IMR with the TNM stage system and SII index, exhibited superior prognostic value compared to the original index. Additionally, the combination of prognostic indicators IMR and SII significantly stratified stage I-II SCLC patients (P ＜0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic index based on peripheral blood IMR stands out as an independent predictor for SCLC patients pre-treatment. Its accessibility through routine blood analysis facilitates immediate clinical application without requiring prolonged scientific research validation. The integration of IMR with the TNM score enhances survival prediction and risk stratification. Notably, when combined with the SII score, the new IMR index demonstrates significant improvements in prognostication for stage I-II small cell lung cancer.