Abstract
Measurable residual disease (MRD) surveillance in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) may identify patients destined for relapse and thus provide the option of pre-emptive therapy to improve their outcome. Whilst flow cytometric MRD (Flow-MRD) can be applied to high-risk AML/ myelodysplasia patients, its diagnostic performance for detecting impending relapse is unknown. We evaluated this in a cohort comprising 136 true positives (bone marrows preceding relapse by a median of 2.45 months) and 155 true negatives (bone marrows during sustained remission). At an optimal Flow-MRD threshold of 0.040%, clinical sensitivity and specificity for relapse was 74% and 87% respectively (51% and 98% for Flow-MRD ≥ 0.1%) by 'different-from-normal' analysis. Median relapse kinetics were 0.78 log(10)/month but significantly higher at 0.92 log(10)/month for FLT3-mutated AML. Computational (unsupervised) Flow-MRD (C-Flow-MRD) generated optimal MRD thresholds of 0.036% and 0.082% with equivalent clinical sensitivity to standard analysis. C-Flow-MRD-identified aberrancies in HLADRlow or CD34+CD38low (LSC-type) subpopulations contributed the greatest clinical accuracy (56% sensitivity, 90% specificity) and notably, by longitudinal profiling expanded rapidly within blasts in > 40% of 86 paired MRD and relapse samples. In conclusion, flow MRD surveillance can detect MRD relapse in high risk AML and its evaluation may be enhanced by computational analysis.