Abstract
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) represent a significant component of air pollution. However, studies evaluating the impact of VOC exposure on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have predominantly focused on single pollutant models. This study aims to comprehensively assess the relationship between multiple VOC exposures and COPD. A large cross-sectional study was conducted on 4983 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Four models, including weighted logistic regression, restricted cubic splines (RCS), weighted quantile sum regression (WQS), and the dual-pollution model, were used to explore the association between blood VOC levels and the prevalence of COPD in the U.S. general population. Additionally, six machine learning algorithms were employed to develop a predictive model for COPD risk, with the model's predictive capacity assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) indices. Elevated blood concentrations of benzene, toluene, ortho-xylene, and para-xylene were significantly associated with the incidence of COPD. RCS analysis further revealed a non-linear and non-monotonic relationship between blood levels of toluene and m-p-xylene with COPD prevalence. WQS regression indicated that different VOCs had varying effects on COPD, with benzene and ortho-xylene having the greatest weights. Among the six models, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model demonstrated the strongest predictive power, with an AUC value of 0.781. Increased blood concentrations of benzene and toluene are significantly correlated with a higher prevalence of COPD in the U.S. population, demonstrating a non-linear relationship. Exposure to environmental VOCs may represent a new risk factor in the etiology of COPD.