Abstract
BACKGROUND: Follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) and follicular thyroid adenoma (FTA) present diagnostic challenges due to overlapping clinical and ultrasound features. Improving the diagnosis of FTC can enhance patient prognosis and effectiveness in clinical management. This study seeks to develop a predictive model for FTC based on ultrasound features using machine learning (ML) algorithms and assess its diagnostic effectiveness. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with FTA or FTC based on surgical pathology between January 2009 and February 2023 at Zhejiang Provincial Cancer Hospital and Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital were retrospectively included. A total of 562 patients from Zhejiang Provincial Cancer Hospital comprised the training set, and 218 patients from Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital constituted the validation set. Subsequently, clinical parameters and ultrasound characteristics of the patients were collected. The diagnostic parameters were analyzed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression screening methods. Next, a comparative analysis was performed using seven ML models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value (PPV), negative predicted value (NPV), precision, recall, and comprehensive evaluation index (F-score) were calculated to compare the diagnostic efficacy among the seven models and determine the optimal model. Further, the optimal model was validated, and the SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP) approach was applied to explain the significance of the model variables. Finally, an individualized risk assessment was conducted. RESULTS: Age, echogenicity, thyroglobulin antibody (TGAb), echotexture, composition, triiodothyronine (T3), thyroglobulin (TG), margin, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), calcification, and halo thickness >2 mm were influential factors for diagnosing FTC. The XGBoost model was identified as the optimal model after a comprehensive evaluation. The AUC of this model in the validation set was 0.969 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.946-0.992], while its precision sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 0.791, 0.930, 0.913 and 0.917, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: XGBoost model based on ultrasound features was constructed and interpreted using the SHAP method, providing evidence for the diagnosis of FTC and guidance for the personalized treatment of patients.