Abstract
According to the European Society of Cardiology, globally the number of patients with heart failure nearly doubled from 33.5 million in 1990 to 64.3 million in 2017, and is further projected to increase dramatically in this decade, still remaining a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. One of the most frequently applied heart failure classification systems that physicians use is the New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification. Each NYHA class describes a patient's symptoms while performing physical activities, delivering a strong indicator of the heart performance. In each case, a NYHA class is individually determined routinely based on the subjective assessment of the treating physician. However, such diagnosis can suffer from bias, eventually affecting a valid assessment. To tackle this issue, we take advantage of the machine learning approach to develop a decision-tree, along with a set of decision rules, which can serve as additional blinded investigator tool to make unbiased assessment. On a dataset containing 434 observations, the supervised learning approach was initially employed to train a Decision Tree model. In the subsequent phase, ensemble learning techniques were utilized to develop both the Voting Classifier and the Random Forest model. The performance of all models was assessed using 10-fold cross-validation with stratification.The Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Voting Classifier models reported accuracies of 76.28%, 96.77%, and 99.54% respectively. The Voting Classifier led in classifying NYHA I and III with 98.7% and 100% accuracy. Both Random Forest and Voting Classifier flawlessly classified NYHA II at 100%. However, for NYHA IV, Random Forest achieved a perfect score, while the Voting Classifier reported 90%. The Decision Tree showed the least effectiveness among all the models tested. In our opinion, the results seem satisfactory in terms of their supporting role in clinical practice. In particular, the use of a machine learning tool could reduce or even eliminate the bias in the physician's assessment. In addition, future research should consider testing other variables in different datasets to gain a better understanding of the significant factors affecting heart failure.