Abstract
To determine the clinical indicators predictive of refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) in children and develop a robust predictive model to aid in early identification and management. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 338 children diagnosed with RMPP out of a total of 1500 cases of Mycoplasma pneumoniae at a single tertiary hospital from May 2021 to November 2023. Clinical and demographic data analyzed included age, gender, parents' educational level, household income, body mass index, allergic constitution, and laboratory findings such as white blood cell count, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts, platelet count, and levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, and procalcitonin. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify significant predictors of RMPP, and a predictive model was developed. Among the RMPP cohort, 52.4% were female, with a mean age of 6.07 ± 2.78 years. Multivariate analysis identified several significant predictors of poor prognosis, including higher body mass index, longer duration of fever, elevated white blood cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein levels, and increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio. The model demonstrated outstanding diagnostic performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.963 (95% confidence interval: 0.946-0.981). Our study identifies key clinical indicators with significant diagnostic accuracy for predicting RMPP in children. The predictive model established offers a valuable tool for clinicians, potentially improving RMPP outcomes through timely intervention.