Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study considers care management for older chronic patients during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. AIMS: To identify groups of variables at previous time points as a basis for deriving efficient classification models during and after a pandemic situation and to quantify the effect of each variable within the model to predict levels of worsening risk in diastolic and systolic arterial hypertension (AHT). MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this prospective longitudinal study, data were collected at three time points: before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic period. RESULTS: The study included 148 patients with an average age of 81.6 years. During the study period, mean systolic blood pressure among this population rose by 5 mmHg to 128.8 mmHg; the number of patients with systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg rose by 45.3%; among those with diastolic blood pressure > 90, the number rose by 41.2%; mean triglycerides levels rose to 152.6 mg/dL; cholesterol levels rose to 147 mg/dL; and LDL cholesterol rose to 112.2 mg/dL. Meanwhile, mean levels of HDL cholesterol decreased to 46.5 mg/dL. Binary-response logistic regression models were constructed to identify the most relevant variables for predicting AHT risk during and after the pandemic. The heart rate (OR = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.22-2.72) and body mass index (OR = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.08-2.94) variables were significant at the population level (p < 0.05) for diastolic and systolic AHT in the pandemic period risk models. The body mass index variable was also significant for diastolic AHT in the post-pandemic period risk model (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.32-2.94), whilst the triglycerides variable was significant in the systolic AHT post-pandemic period risk model (OR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.01-1.86). CONCLUSIONS: Bad control of arterial hypertension in older patients with chronic disease is associated with elevated levels of LDL cholesterol, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, heart rate and triglycerides, and lower levels of HDL cholesterol.