Abstract
Background: Common bile duct (CBD) stones may pass spontaneously without any intervention. Assessment of the predictors of spontaneous passage can contribute to avoiding unnecessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) implementation. This study aimed to investigate the factors related to spontaneous passage of CBD stones. Methods: From January 2021 to August 2023, patients with naïve papilla who had undergone biliary ERCP and with CBD stones detected by MRCP before the procedure were analyzed retrospectively. Subjects were divided into two groups on the basis of the presence of stones during the ERCP procedure: the spontaneous passage group and the non-passage group. Groups were compared in terms of demographic, laboratory, and radiological data. Results: A total of 236 patients, including 26 in the spontaneous passage group and 210 in the non-passage group, were involved. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that only stone size was significantly associated with spontaneous passage. From ROC curve analysis, stone size with a cut-off value of 4.3 mm predicted spontaneous passage with 58% sensitivity and 85% specificity. Conclusions: Stones with a size of less than 4.3 mm are more likely to pass spontaneously without endoscopic intervention. Paying attention to the stone diameter before ERCP procedures can contribute to avoiding unnecessary ERCP implementation.