Abstract
BACKGROUND: Previously identified phenotypes of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) could not reveal the dynamic change of phenotypes over time. We aimed to identify novel clinical phenotypes in ARDS using trajectories of fluid balance, to test whether phenotypes respond differently to different treatment, and to develop a simplified model for phenotype identification. METHODS: FACTT (conservative vs liberal fluid management) trial was classified as a development cohort, joint latent class mixed models (JLCMMs) were employed to identify trajectories of fluid balance. Heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) for fluid management strategy across phenotypes was investigated. We also constructed a parsimonious probabilistic model using baseline data to predict the fluid trajectories in the development cohort. The trajectory groups and the probabilistic model were externally validated in EDEN (initial trophic vs full enteral feeding) trial. RESULTS: Using JLCMM, we identified two trajectory groups in the development cohort: Class 1 (n = 758, 76.4% of the cohort) had an early positive fluid balance, but achieved negative fluid balance rapidly, and Class 2 (n = 234, 24.6% of the cohort) was characterized by persistent positive fluid balance. Compared to Class 1 patients, patients in Class 2 had significantly higher 60-day mortality (53.5% vs. 17.8%, p < 0.001), and fewer ventilator-free days (0 vs. 20, p < 0.001). A significant HTE between phenotypes and fluid management strategies was observed in the FACTT. An 8-variables model was derived for phenotype assignment. CONCLUSIONS: We identified and validated two novel clinical trajectories for ARDS patients, with both prognostic and predictive enrichment. The trajectories of ARDS can be identified with simple classifier models.