Abstract
BACKGROUND: We extended our study of trajectories of intellectual development of autistic individuals in early (mean age 3 years; T1), and middle childhood (mean age 5 years, 7 months; T2) into later middle childhood/preadolescence (mean age 11 years, 6 months; T3) in the longitudinal Autism Phenome Project cohort. Participants included 373 autistic children (115 females). METHODS: Multivariate latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct IQ trajectory subgroups. Baseline and developmental course group differences and predictors of trajectory membership were assessed using linear mixed effects models with repeated measures with pairwise testing, multinomial logistic regression models, and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We isolated three IQ trajectories between T1 and T3 for autistic youth that were similar to those found in our prior work. These included a group with persistent intellectual disability (ID; 45%), a group with substantial increases in IQ (CHG; 39%), and a group with persistently average or above IQs (P-High; 16%). By T3, the groups did not differ in ADOS-2 calibrated severity scores (CSS), and there were no group differences between Vineland (VABS) communication scores in CHG and P-High. T1-T3 externalizing behaviors declined significantly for CHG, however, there were no significant T3 group differences between internalizing or externalizing symptoms. T1 correlates for CHG and P-High versus ID group membership included higher VABS communication and lower ADOS-2 CSS. A T1 to T2 increase in VABS communication scores and a decline in externalizing predicted CHG versus ID group membership at T3, while T1 to T2 improvement in VABS communication and reduction in ADOS-2 CSS predicted P-High versus ID group membership. CONCLUSIONS: Autistic youth exhibit consistent IQ developmental trajectories from early childhood through preadolescence. Factors associated with trajectory group membership may provide clues about prognosis, and the need for treatments that improve adaptive communication and externalizing symptoms.