Effects of Deflation and Macroeconomic Shocks on Leisure Spending in the Pre-War Era: Evidence from Major League Baseball, 1890-1940

战前时期通货紧缩和宏观经济冲击对休闲支出的影响:来自美国职业棒球大联盟(1890-1940)的证据

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Abstract

Pre-war baseball attendance data afford a unique opportunity to assess how leisure spending fared not only through deflation but also after such shocks as the Spanish Flu of 1918 and the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Long-run analysis via a vector error correction model (VECM) reveals significant cointegration of baseball attendance with both prices and output. A long-run positive relationship with prices offers evidence of a negative impact of deflation on leisure spending, suggesting that deflation is indeed more to be feared than inflation. There are also apparent parallels between the post-pandemic boom in leisure spending in 1919 and the post-2020 experience. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11293-022-09756-3.

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