Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms among patients. To date, there has been little effort to inform the long-term trajectory of symptom change and the factors associated with different trajectories. Such knowledge is key to treatment decision-making in primary care, where depression is a common reason for consultation. We aimed to identify distinct long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms and explore pre-treatment characteristics associated with them. METHODS: A total of 483 patients from the PsicAP clinical trial were included. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify long-term distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms, and multinomial logistic regression models to explore associations between pre-treatment characteristics and trajectories. RESULTS: Four trajectories were identified that best explained the observed response patterns: "recovery" (64.18%), "late recovery" (10.15%), "relapse" (13.67%), and "chronicity" (12%). There was a higher likelihood of following the recovery trajectory for patients who had received psychological treatment in addition to the treatment as usual. Chronicity was associated with higher depressive severity, comorbidity (generalized anxiety, panic, and somatic symptoms), taking antidepressants, higher emotional suppression, lower levels on life quality, and being older. Relapse was associated with higher depressive severity, somatic symptoms, and having basic education, and late recovery was associated with higher depressive severity, generalized anxiety symptoms, greater disability, and rumination. CONCLUSIONS: There were different trajectories of depressive course and related prognostic factors among the patients. However, further research is needed before these findings can significantly influence care decisions.