Abstract
BACKGROUND: We previously reported that CEA kinetics are a marker of progressive disease (PD) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). This study was specifically designed to confirm CEA kinetics for predicting PD and to evaluate CA19-9, cell-free DNA (cfDNA), circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) and circulating tumour cell (CTC) kinetics. METHODS: Patients starting a chemotherapy (CT) with pre-treatment CEA > 5 ng/mL and/or CA19.9 > 30 UI/mL were prospectively included. Samples were collected from baseline to cycle 4 for CEA and CA19-9 and at baseline and the sixth week for other markers. CEA kinetics were calculated from the first to the third or fourth CT cycle. RESULTS: A total of 192 mCRC patients were included. CEA kinetics based on the previously identified >0.05 threshold was significantly associated with PD (p < 0.0001). By dichotomising by the median value, cfDNA, ctDNA and CA19-9 were associated with PD, PFS and OS in multivariate analysis. A circulating scoring system (CSS) combining CEA kinetics and baseline CA19-9 and cfDNA values classified patients based on high (n = 58) and low risk (n = 113) of PD and was independently associated with PD (ORa = 4.6, p < 0.0001), PFS (HRa = 2.07, p < 0.0001) and OS (HRa = 2.55, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: CEA kinetics alone or combined with baseline CA19-9 and cfDNA are clinically relevant for predicting outcomes in mCRC. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01212510.