Abstract
Both unresolved physics in numerical models and limited theoretical understanding of the small-scale diffusion processes occurring near the ocean surface hamper predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) wind changes. An analytical model is here developed to diagnose the short-term evolution of the TC wind profile. An effective frictional parameter is introduced to control the unknown diffusion effects. When this frictional parameter is adjusted to match the TC intensity change, solutions are consistent with observed high-resolution ocean surface wind speeds from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR). The initial high-resolution estimate of the near-core wind structure is then found to strongly modulate the wind profile evolution. The frictional parameter can, unfortunately, not efficiently be calibrated using outer-core wind speed changes. Low-resolution observations or standard numerical weather predictions may thus not be directly used to reinterpret and anticipate short-term TC wind changes. The expected accumulation of orbiting SAR sensors as well as improved measurements of the ocean-atmosphere boundary layer characteristics shall then become essential to more precisely monitor TC dynamics.