Abstract
The discrepancy between the operating and design capacities of solar plants in eastern Uganda is alarming; about 35 % underperformance in solar power generation is observed. The goal of the current study is to minimize this disparity by improving the design models. Considering only cell temperature in the power generation model is responsible for the observed difference in design and operational solar power generated, the present study used a thermocouple to directly measure cell temperature, an anemometer to measure wind speed, and a solar power meter to measure irradiance. These extrinsic factors were used to modify the power generation model based only on cell temperature through the direct correlation of cell temperature, wind speed, and irradiance with solar power generation. Thus, the absence of extrinsic factors (wind speed and irradiance) in the design models is responsible for the colossal drop in solar power generated. Empirically, the missing extrinsic factors were used to transform the implicit solar power model into an explicit model. The development of a solar power generation model, multiple differential models, simulation and experimentation with a pilot solar rig served as alternate model for the prediction of solar power generation. The second-order differential model validated well with empirical solar power generated in Busitema, Mayuge, Soroti, and Tororo study areas based on RMSEs (0.6437, 0.6692, 0.2008, 0.1804, respectively), thus, narrowing the gap between the designed and operational solar power generated. Mayuge and Soroti recorded the highest solar power generation of 9.028 MW compared to Busitema (8.622 MW) and Tororo (8.345 MW), suggesting that it has a conducive site for installing future solar plants. The above results support the use of empirical explicit (triple) and second-order differential models for the design and operation of power plants.