Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pollination is crucial to obtaining optimal blueberry yield and fruit quality. Despite substantial investments in seasonal beekeeping services, blueberry producers consistently report suboptimal pollinator visitation and fruit set in some cultivars. Flower morphology and floral rewards are among the key factors that have shown to contribute to pollinator attraction, however little is known about their relative importance for improving yield in the context of plant breeding. Clarifying the relationships between flower morphology, nectar reward content, pollinator recruitment, and pollination outcomes, as well as their genetic components, can inform breeding priorities for enhancing blueberry production. In the present study, we measured ten flower and nectar traits and indices of successful pollination, including fruit set, seed count, and fruit weight in 38 southern highbush blueberry genotypes. Additionally, we assessed pollinator visitation frequency and foraging behavior over two growing seasons. Several statistical models were tested to optimize the prediction of pollinator visitation and pollination success, including partial least squares, BayesB, ridge-regression, and random forest. RESULTS: Random forest models obtained high predictive abilities for pollinator visitation frequency, with values of 0.54, 0.52, and 0.66 for honey bee, bumble bee, and total pollinator visits, respectively. The BayesB model provided the most consistent prediction of fruit set, fruit weight, and seed set, with predictive abilities of 0.07, -0.08, and 0.42, respectively. Variable importance analysis revealed that genotypic differences in nectar volume had the greatest impact on honey bee and bumble bee visitation, although preferences for flower morphological traits varied depending on the foraging task. Flower density was a major driving factor attracting nectar-foraging honey bees and bumble bees, while pollen-foraging bumble bees were most influenced by flower accessibility, specifically corolla length and the length-to-width ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Honey bees comprised the majority of pollinator visits, and were primarily influenced by nectar volume and flower density. Corolla length and the length-to-width ratio were also identified as the main predictors of fruit set, fruit weight, seed count, as well as pollen-foraging bumble bee visits, suggesting that these bees and their foraging preferences may play a pivotal role in fruit production. Moderate to high narrow-sense heritability values (ranging from 0.30 to 0.77) were obtained for all floral traits, indicating that selective breeding efforts may enhance cultivar attractiveness to pollinators.