Abstract
BACKGROUND: A significant association between increased age and an increased risk of metachronous gastric cancer (MGC) following curative endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) has previously been reported. AIM: To determine risk factors for the metachronous occurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) in elderly individuals. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study comprised 653 elderly patients (aged ≥ 65 years) who underwent curative ESD for EGC between January 2014 and June 2020 at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital. Comprehensive analyses were conducted to compare lifestyle habits, comorbidities, and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infections as potential indicators. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 38 months, 46 patients (7.0%, 20.46/1000 person-years) developed MGC in the elderly cohort. The cumulative incidences of MGC at 2, 3, and 5 years were 3.3%, 5.3%, and 11.5%, respectively. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, the independent risk factors for MGC included metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.44, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-5.17], persistent H. pylori infection (HR = 10.38, 95%CI: 3.36-32.07), severe mucosal atrophy (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 1.45-5.08), and pathological differentiation of EGC (well/moderately differentiated vs poorly differentiated: HR = 10.18, 95%CI: 1.30-79.65). Based on these risk factors, a risk stratification system was developed to categorize individuals into low (0-1 point), intermediate (2-3 points), and high (4-8 points) risk categories for MGC, with cumulative incidence rates of 12.3%, 21.6%, and 45%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Among elderly individuals, MASLD, persistent H. pylori infection, severe mucosal atrophy, and well/moderately differentiated EGC were associated with an increased risk of MGC. Elderly patients are recommended to adopt healthy lifestyle practices, and undergo regular endoscopic screening and H. pylori testing after curative ESD for EGC.